Polymarket's U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Market Drops 15.5% for Oct. 31
The yes option in Polymarket’s “U.S.-Iran ceasefire continues” market for Oct. 31 fell by 15.5%. According to ChainCatcher, its probability dropped from 84.5% one hour ago to 69%.
Bitcoin is trading at $79,684.00, down roughly 1.4% over the past 24 hours and sliding below the $80,000 threshold to touch its weakest level in over a month. This price action indicates lingering short-term selling pressure and defensive market behavior, reflecting a cautious risk environment where buyers are hesitating to defend psychological support levels amidst broader market volatility. From a portfolio positioning perspective, the market is navigating conflicting short-term headwinds and longer-term structural developments. In the near term, sentiment faces pressure from notable capital withdrawals, evidenced by $635.5 million in single-day U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, coupled with external macro pressures including elevated oil prices near $100 and tech-sector turbulence. Over the medium to longer term, however, fundamental activity remains resilient, highlighted by Switzerland approving its first domestic spot Bitcoin ETF, institutional expansions in tokenized funds, and the network hashrate reclaiming one zettahash. Nevertheless, pushback from major corporations against share tokenization and heightened regulatory examination present friction to institutional integration. For disciplined allocators, the prevailing setup is mixed, requiring patience as the market absorbs near-term liquidity drains before longer-term structural catalysts can establish directional clarity. - Bitcoin faces clear short-term weakness below $80,000, reinforced by sizable ETF outflows and broader risk-off pressures. - Long-term structural adoption advances with Swiss spot ETF approval and bank-led stablecoins, though corporate resistance to tokenization highlights ongoing adoption friction. - The overall market signal remains mixed, with near-term capital flight offsetting gradual infrastructure and network growth.
The yes option in Polymarket’s “U.S.-Iran ceasefire continues” market for Oct. 31 fell by 15.5%. According to ChainCatcher, its probability dropped from 84.5% one hour ago to 69%.
On Polymarket’s “Brazilian Presidential Election” market, the “Yes” probability for “Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva” rose from 32.8% an hour ago to 58.35%, a 25.55% increase. According to ChainCatcher, the probability is currently 58.35%.
Arthur Hayes received $49.24 million in USDC after recently selling tokens. According to Odaily, Onchain Lens reported that Galaxy Digital transferred $23.07 million to Hayes, bringing his total USDC received from trading desks and exchanges to $49.24 million.
A Hyperliquid trader holds a 10x leveraged long position of 26,000 HYPE, valued at $1.99 million, and has added buy orders for 23,500 HYPE worth about $1.7 million. According to Odaily, Onchain Lens reported that the trader has $3.94 million in cumulative profits, an unrealized loss of $3,800, and l…
Bitcoin and gold are the two worst-performing major assets of 2026, down 7.3% and 7.5%, according to Creative Planning strategist Charlie Bilello. He says no calendar year in his records has put the pair last together.Investors buy both as protection against inflation and market stress. Yet this yea…
Bitcoin (BTC) and gold are the worst-performing major assets of 2026, down 7.3% and 7.5%, respectively—a first in Charlie Bilello’s records for any calendar year. Bilello’s ranking covers 21 asset classes through October 23, according to BeInCrypto. A commodities basket gained 52.5%, U.S. large-cap …
Standard Chartered-backed stablecoin venture Anchorpoint says it will take a cautious approach to opening its Hong Kong dollar-backed stablecoin to retail users, declining to confirm a launch date after rival HSBC rolled out RedCoin, according to the South China Morning Post.The venture released its…
On Polymarket, the Chiefs option in the “Chiefs vs. Seahawks” event’s “3Q Spread -4.5” sub-market fell 33 percentage points, from 49.5% to 16.5%. According to ChainCatcher, the change occurred over the past hour.
Anchorpoint says it will take a cautious approach to a retail Hong Kong dollar stablecoin and has not confirmed a launch date. According to ChainCatcher, CEO Dominic Maffei declined at a Friday press conference to reaffirm an earlier target of opening retail access as early as the end of 2026, sayin…
On Polymarket's “Grizzlies vs. Kings” event, the “Yes” option in the “Cedric Coward: Points O/U 13.5” sub-market is at 45.5%. According to ChainCatcher, the probability rose from 21.5% one hour earlier, an increase of 24 percentage points.
An institution that has invested in both Aave and Worldcoin transferred 16.1 million WLD and 35,000 AAVE to multiple centralized exchanges over the past day. According to Odaily, citing on-chain analyst Ember, the institution may have sold about 35.1 million WLD, 6,000 ETH and 97,000 AAVE over the p…
Andreessen Horowitz is expanding its crypto team’s investment brief. Chris Dixon’s October 22 announcement renames a16z Crypto as a16z Frontier, with the new fund able to pursue a wider range of emerging technologies while continuing crypto investment.TL;DRThe business model becomes more useful than…