Analysis: Bitcoin Rebound Faces Selling Pressure as Whale Exchange Inflows Rise
Bitcoin is trying to rebound after a sharp drop, but rising exchange inflows from whale investors and elevated leverage are increasing the risk of another leg lower, according to an analysis.XWIN Japan, a contributor to crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote on Nov. 9 that the key question is whether real spot demand can absorb the supply moving onto exchanges. After analyzing Bitcoin’s exchange whale ratio and estimated leverage ratio, XWIN Japan said a rebound driven mainly by leverage is unlikely to deliver a sustained recovery in prices.Bitcoin plunged from above $75,600 to around $73,400 on Nov. 9 before rebounding to about $75,500. By the morning of Nov. 10 in Japan, it had slipped back to around $74,600. Large-scale long liquidations deepened the selloff, and the rebound showed no clear sign of strong spot buying.Demand from institutional investors also appeared to weaken. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted net outflows of $411.9 million on Nov. 6 alone, bringing weekly net outflows to $1.28 billion. Some buying emerged on Binance and OKX, but Coinbase continued to show heavier selling.On-chain indicators also pointed to activity by large holders. The exchange whale ratio — which measures the share of the top 10 deposits in total Bitcoin inflows to exchanges — has repeatedly surged above 0.4 since late October. That suggests exchange inflows are becoming concentrated in a small number of large transactions. XWIN Japan added, however, that the metric alone cannot determine whether whales are actually selling.Leverage also remains elevated. Bitcoin’s estimated leverage ratio on exchanges rose from around 0.22 to 0.24 in mid-October to about 0.265 in early November, before recently easing to 0.249. Some leverage was flushed out during the sharp decline, but the level remains high compared with mid-October.XWIN Japan said investors should watch spot cumulative volume delta, or CVD, the Coinbase premium and spot ETF fund flows together to judge whether Bitcoin’s recovery can continue. The analysis said further price volatility could follow if the rebound remains leverage-driven while spot demand fails to recover sufficiently.