BIS Says 0.01-Percentage-Point Rise in Bank Deposit Rates Could Slow Stablecoin Growth to 12% From 15%
Research from the Bank for International Settlements suggests higher bank deposit rates could slow the growth of the stablecoin market.CoinDesk reported on October 17 that BIS researchers Rashad Ahmed and Iñaki Aldasoro analyzed weekly data from January 2019 through June 2025 and found that when the average deposit rate at U.S. banks rises by 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, growth in stablecoin market capitalization tends to slow.According to the study, when deposit rates rise by 0.01 percentage point, the 10-week average growth rate of stablecoin market capitalization declines to about 12% from roughly 15%.In the researchers' preferred estimate, which also reflects the effect of banks raising rates in response to the expansion of the stablecoin market, the growth rate drops to about 6%. That approach carries some uncertainty, they wrote. In both cases, the stablecoin market did not shrink; only the pace of growth slowed.The effect was more pronounced in Circle's USDC than in Tether's USDT. The researchers said that may be because USDC is more closely linked to U.S. users.They said banks could still influence the pace of stablecoin adoption to some extent by raising deposit rates to prevent customer outflows. At the same time, the study does not prove that bank deposits or lending actually declined, and the sample period included only one high-rate cycle.The researchers wrote, "Banks can retain some influence over the pace of stablecoin adoption through adjustments to deposit rates."