Bitcoin Bulls Say ‘Bottom's in’ but Bears Eye $73,000 Ahead of Midterms
Bitcoin faces its biggest test of the year as the U.S. midterms arrive Tuesday, with bulls arguing the bottom is already in while bears still eye $73,000 as a key downside target.Why Bulls Say Bitcoin Won’t Fall FurtherWidely-followed market commentator Our Crypto Talk posted on X that Bitcoin bottomed 71 days after the 2014 midterms, 39 days after 2018, and just 13 days after 2022, a shrinking window the account says points to Bitcoin already finding its low this cycle."We don’t see it going below $58K at all, and we’d be very surprised if it did," the post read, citing Bitcoin’s resilience following this week’s Binance hack as further evidence.Meanwhile, DWF Labs posted on X that Bitcoin gained in the 12 months following each of the last three midterm elections, rising 25%, 45% and 92% respectively, even though the path included drawdowns of 31% and 46% three months into the 2014 and 2018 cycles.The post also noted the third year of a presidential term has historically been the strongest for the S&P 500 ), gaining in 17 of the last 19 cycles with an 18.9% median return, a pattern Bitcoin has mirrored with gains of 34% in 2015, 92% in 2019 and 155% in 2023.Why Bears Still Point to $73,000Widely-followed cryptocurency analyst Ali Martinez posted on X in late September that Bitcoin fell 72%, 65%, 52% and 27% following the 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms respectively, calling the pattern worth watching even though it doesn’t prove elections directly cause the declines.He flagged Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis near $73,000 as the key level to watch, since that zone has historically held through major corrections during confirmed bull markets.Why $176 Million in Crypto Money Is Riding on Tuesday’s RacesMilk Road Crypto posted on X that crypto industry groups have poured roughly $176 million into the 2026 midterms across more than 100 races, with Fairshake and its affiliates accounting for $150.8 million of that total through October 20.Backers include Coinbase , Ripple and a16z, following the same playbook that saw Fairshake spend $196 million in 2024.So far, 53 of the group’s 58 backed candidates have won their primaries or special elections.The single biggest bet has landed in Ohio, where crypto groups have spent more than $68 million opposing Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown in his Senate race against Republican Jon Husted.With the Clarity Act stalled in Congress, JPMorgan analysts warned that a future administration could reverse federal agency rules, leaving the fight over who ultimately sets crypto policy unresolved heading into Election Day.Preview Image: Shutterstock