Bitcoin Can Retake $125,000, Galaxy Says: ‘The Crowd Has Left’
Bitcoin bottomed in June and is now in its accumulation phase, Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research Alex Thorn says, with a potential run back to $125,000 ahead.Why Thorn Says the Bottom Is Already InThorn wrote in a research note to Galaxy clients that Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average in the week ended Sept. 20, marking five straight weekly closes above that level as of Oct. 18.He said every prior cycle since 2011 saw a sustained reclaim of that average only after the actual low was already in place, and reclaims that ended spells of 20 weeks or longer below the average never saw prices close more than 8.4% below the reclaim level over the following year.Thorn also pointed to the four-year halving cycle, noting Bitcoin’s low this cycle landed on day 802 after the halving, while Thursday marked day 916, placing Bitcoin past the window in which all three prior cycles bottomed.He called this the shallowest bear market on record, down 53% from its high compared to declines of 93%, 85% and 84% in prior cycles.Why Thorn Says the Sellers Have Already LeftLeveraged funds and basis traders who drove Bitcoin’s carry trade into October 2025 have cut their futures exposure by more than half, Thorn said, with asset managers’ net long position in CME Bitcoin futures falling 57% from the week of the all-time high.Nine major hedge funds drove most of that exit:Combined ETF holdings cut: 68,000 BTC between September 2025 and June 2026Funds involved: Millennium Management, Brevan Howard and seven othersContext: that figure exceeds the 48,000 BTC decline across all institutional filers combined, meaning every other reporting institution actually added to positions in aggregateSpot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low even as leveraged shorts kept shrinking, Thorn said, calling that combination consistent with genuine directional buying rather than short-term carry trades.Why the Debasement Case Has Only Gotten StrongerFederal debt stood at $40.44 trillion as of Oct. 20, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 5.31% in early October, its highest level since 2007.A government refinancing that much debt while running a deficit equal to 6.2% of GDP faces growing pressure to inflate the debt away, Thorn argued, strengthening Bitcoin’s case as a fixed-supply alternative.He also flagged sentiment hitting a familiar low point, with attention shifting toward "stablecoins and tokenization" narratives over Bitcoin itself, a pattern he said preceded major rallies twice before, in 2015-16 and 2018-19.Thorn set one condition that would break his bullish thesis: a weekly close back below the 50-week moving average, currently near $76,540, not reclaimed within a month.Preview Image: Shutterstock