Bitcoin Could Bottom in December, Prominent Bearish Analyst Predicts
Bitcoin has dropped to its 20-week moving average, with analyst Benjamin Cowen warning that could follow amid stock market weakness and historical midterm-year selling pressure.Why Could Bitcoin Fall Further?In a podcast on Nov. 9 Cowen said Bitcoin has entered its bull market support band, which consists of the 20-week simple moving average and 21-week exponential moving average.He expects BTC to eventually break below this support zone. His analysis is based on several bearish signals:Bitcoin bounced from its 21-week EMA before falling toward its 20-week SMA flashing weakening support. This mirrors patterns seen in Ethereum and the Nasdaq.Bitcoin closed back below its 50-week moving average after briefly breaking above it, suggesting a potential bull trap.Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin could face another major sell-off in Q4.Continued Nasdaq weakness could drag Bitcoin lower as investors reduce exposure to riskier assets.Cowen noted that Bitcoin’s recent breakout above its 50-week moving average delivered gains of only around 10%, compared with roughly 30% advances following similar breakouts in 2019 and 2023.He also highlighted Bitcoin’s reversal below its May high as further evidence of a failed bullish breakout.Bitcoin Could Bottom In DecemberCowen expects Bitcoin to decline in stages, with temporary rebounds before a potential final bottom in Q4, following earlier lows in February and summer.Historical patterns following the Fed’s first-rate hike point to weakness around days 58 and 94.With the current cycle near day 54, Cowen sees December as a potential bottoming window.He also cited Bitcoin’s December 2018 low, suggesting the upcoming Fed meeting could mark a turning point if investors anticipate an end to rate hikes.Preview Image: Shutterstock