Bitcoin Could Face Third and Final 2026 Low in Q4 if S&P500 Drops, Analyst Cautions
Bitcoin could see a third low this year, according to analyst Benjamin Cowen, who is pointing to the S&P 500 as one of the last major indexes still due for a bigger drop.Why Cowen Says the S&P 500 Hasn’t Fallen Enough YetCowen said Tuesday that the Nasdaq has already dropped more than 10% this quarter, while the Russell 2000 fell 11% to 12% and the Dow dropped about 7%, closely mirroring 2018’s midterm-year correction.The S&P 500 ), by contrast, is down only about 4%, which Cowen called a sign it’s "one of the last things to fall" before any policy response from the administration.Cowen pointed to the S&P’s return path during President Donald Trump’s current term closely tracking his first term, with a correction early in both 2018 and 2026 followed by a similar drop emerging late in both years.He said the index has already broken below its 50-day moving average and entered its bull market support band, and expects it to test the 200-day moving average near 7,300 before the correction runs its course.Why Cowen Sees This Fitting the Midterm PlaybookCowen pointed to the last three midterm years, 2014, 2018 and 2022, which each produced a correction early in the year followed by a second drop late in the year, and 2026 has followed the same script with a roughly 13% decline already completed earlier this year.He argued that widespread predictions the Q4 correction wouldn’t happen simply because everyone expected it mirror similar false comfort around Bitcoin’s own seasonal Q4 weakness."We’ve talked about the Q4 dump for Bitcoin and people say, well, it’s not going to happen because everyone’s expecting it," Cowen noted."But we said the same thing back in February and the same thing back in the summer for Bitcoin, and every single time it happens anyways," he added.Why Oil and the Iran War Remain the Bigger WildcardCowen sees WTI crude climbing toward the top of its trading range after the midterms unless a ceasefire holds in Iran.He said markets have repeatedly priced in an Iran deal this year, only for those expectations to fade within weeks. Over the next 12 to 18 months, he thinks investors could start brushing off similar reports.Cowen expects stocks to bottom within the next couple of months and then rebound. He sees a potential OpenAI IPO in early 2027 as the next major event for investors.Preview Image: Shutterstock