Bitcoin Faces Second Straight October Loss as US Buying Weakens, Spot Demand Slumps
Bitcoin may be headed for a second straight decline in October as buying by US investors slows and spot demand weakens.A report from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant dated Oct. 27 showed Bitcoin falling to $80,051 on Oct. 25 from $83,567 at the end of September. That leaves the cryptocurrency down 4.2% for the month, well below the average October return of 18.1% since 2020.Bitcoin posted gains every October from 2020 through 2024, but that streak ended last year with a 3.8% decline. If the current trend continues, this year would mark a second consecutive October loss and the cryptocurrency's weakest October since 2020.Demand indicators also pointed to weakness. Bitcoin spot demand has been negative every day since Oct. 14, and cumulative demand over the past 30 days had dropped by about 76,000 BTC as of Oct. 25. The Coinbase premium, a gauge of US investor buying strength, remained negative throughout October. On Oct. 24, it fell to minus 0.146, the lowest level since late June.Short-term investors also have less room for profit. The premium of market price over the realized price for holders with a one- to three-month holding period narrowed to 8.1% on Oct. 26 from 33.4% on Sept. 22. CryptoQuant said much of the market's buffer against further price declines has been exhausted.Still, the uptrend has not fully broken down. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index fell from 90 to 60, but six of its 10 indicators are still flashing bullish signals. A drop below 50 is interpreted as a sign of a shift in market conditions.CryptoQuant identified $73,000 to $77,600 as the next major support range. The 365-day moving average stands at $77,585, the short-term holder realized price at $74,041, and the 200-day moving average at $73,028. The firm said the Federal Open Market Committee's rate decision on Oct. 28 and the US midterm elections on Nov. 3 will be key drivers of Bitcoin's next move.