Bitcoin Faces the 'Curse of the 21st': Is Another November Low Ahead?
Bitcoin is holding above a key $83,000 support level that analyst Benjamin Cowen flagged as the line bulls need to defend.Why Cowen Calls It the ‘Curse of the 21st’Cowen posted on X that Bitcoin’s recent monthly pattern keeps pointing to the 21st as a turning point.Bitcoin managed to climb past Sept. 3 after rallying through Aug. 21, but only marginally, while other months saw the 21st mark the local top outright.Here’s the calendar pattern showing up in both Bitcoin’s lows and highs:Monthly lows: Aug. 14, Sept. 15, Oct. 15, all roughly mid-month before rallies followedRally tops: both August and September’s strongest rally legs ended right on the 21stResidual strength: in both cases, Bitcoin still gained roughly a week and a half more into early the following month, even after the main move had played outIf that pattern holds, Cowen expects the next low around mid-November, with the next local high falling somewhere between Oct. 21 and the Nov. 3 midterms.He ties that timing to broader monetary policy expectations, since long-end yields typically start falling more durably after midterm elections rather than before them.If Bitcoin follows the same script this cycle, it could show renewed strength heading into the midterms before any meaningful pullback follows.What’s Happening Beneath Bitcoin’s SurfaceBitcoin’s relative strength against other crypto assets gives Cowen reason to stay bullish on Bitcoin dominance, which now sits near 61%.While Bitcoin holds above its 50-day moving average near $81,700, Ethereum remains well below its own 50-day average, and broader altcoin indexes have lost that same level entirely.That divergence ties back to the likelihood of tighter monetary policy ahead, a backdrop that typically favors Bitcoin over altcoins, according to Cowen.One weekly close below $83,000 earlier this month wasn’t enough to shift control to the bears in his view, since multiple consecutive weekly closes below that level would be needed before treating it as a real breakdown.Where the Next Catalyst SitsThe upcoming FOMC meeting, roughly a week out at the time of the video, stands as the next major catalyst for Bitcoin’s price, Cowen said.As long as Bitcoin holds above $83,000, he argued, the burden of proof stays on the bears, not the bulls, to prove the trend has actually turned.Preview Image: Shutterstock