Bitcoin Rallies 2%: Could Tightening Supply Spark a Bigger Rally?
Bitcoin is up 2% on Wednesday as the Democratic sweep in the Midterm elections is accompanied by record accumulation by mid-sized wallets.Since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, wallets holding less than 10 BTC added about 5.7 million addresses—but their combined holdings fell by roughly 133,000 BTC.The likely explanation: more retail investors now hold Bitcoin through brokerage accounts and ETF shares, rather than wallets they control directly. That can make on-chain data understate retail demand.What the Ownership Data ShowsWallets with less than 10 BTC held 17.1% of supply, down from a peak of 18.3% on Jan. 1, 2024.Wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC—the "shark" tier—now control a record 26.3% of supply, up from 20.1% when spot ETFs launched.The shark tier accumulated about 1.35 million BTC since the ETF launch. Wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC gave up about 487,000 BTC.Visible institutions hold about 3.28 million BTC, or 16.3% of circulating supply. Spot ETFs account for 41% of that total; corporate treasuries account for 40.1%.These figures track wallet addresses, not individual owners. A large address may belong to an exchange or ETF custodian holding Bitcoin for many customers. The data can show where coins sit on-chain, but it cannot prove who owns them or why they moved.That distinction matters. ETF investors may be retail buyers, but their coins typically sit with custodians. Their holdings can appear in larger addresses instead of the small-wallet groups used to measure direct ownership.Why a Smaller Pool of Coins May Amplify DemandAn estimated 13.3 million BTC—about two-thirds of all mined Bitcoin—could realistically trade, according to analysis by by Onchainmind.io founder Tom.That estimate excludes coins believed lost, long-dormant holdings and known institutional or government reserves. Because some categories overlap, the figure is an upper bound.A tighter tradable supply could magnify the effect of new demand. But it cuts both ways: companies facing financial pressure could sell, and ETF investors can exit. The holder base also has not yet been tested through a full market cycle.Bitcoin’s bear-market declines have eased over time: from 85% in 2015 and 83% in 2018 to 77% in 2022. The latest drawdown reached 53% from the October 2025 high to the June 2026 low, according to the supplied analysis.The data points to a shift in how investors hold Bitcoin—not clear evidence that retail has left. More coins may now sit in institutional custody, while fewer appear in small wallets.Preview Image: Shutterstock