Bitcoin Sank After the Past Two Midterms. Here's Why This Time May Be Different
Bitcoin climbed towards $84,500 Wednesday and may have already bottomed months ahead of its usual post-midterm pattern, according to a prominent traderWhy This Midterm Cycle Could Look DifferentWidely-followed cryptocurrency trader Castillo Trading posted on X that Bitcoin dropped 42% in Q4 2018 and 14% in Q4 2022, the two prior midterm years, with both selloffs arriving after the election rather than before.This year, he argues Bitcoin may have already bottomed near $58,000 back in the summer, roughly five months earlier than the usual pattern.He said either a sharp selloff still hits crypto before year-end, or 2026 breaks the historical mold and heads into a green fourth quarter instead, noting that the quarter following midterms has turned green in both prior cycles regardless of how Q4 itself played out.That take runs counter to of analyst Ali Martinez, who pointed to Bitcoin falling 72%, 65%, 52% and 27% in the periods following the 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms, respectively.Martinez also said he’s watching for weakness after the Nov. 3 election, then plans to buy near Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis around $73,000, a level that’s historically held through corrections during confirmed bull markets.What the Charts and Flows Say Right NowTrader Bob Loukas posted on X that Bitcoin’s recovery toward $84,000, moving back above its key moving average, confirms the start of a new cycle in his view.“These events provide a really clear and clean setup,” he wrote, pointing to a potential path toward $87,500 resistance, then $90,000 to $98,000, over a 30-to-45-day window.He warned that losing the recent low of $79,600 would undermine that bullish setup entirely, saying it’s “a level where you would want to get very defensive.”Meanwhile, trader SalsaTekila posted on X that skeptics will likely only come around once Bitcoin clears $100,000.“What will it take for you guys to understand how strong this market is?” he wrote, pushing back on lingering doubts about the market’s underlying strength.Moreover, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs added $23.16 million on October 20, following $526.60 million the prior session, bringing two-day net inflows to roughly $550 million according to SoSoValue.Where Bitcoin Stands TechnicallyBitcoin is up 2% Wednesday, holding above all four major EMAs after reclaiming its rising trendline.Key levels for BTC:$86,500 to $87,000: resistance zone$82,700: immediate supportPreview Image: Shutterstock