Bitcoin's $100K Christmas Odds Collapse — Market Talk
0639 GMT - It's striking how quickly sentiment changed after the Binance hack, says Nick Forster, founder and CEO of Derive.xyz. Derive options price a 3.5% probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by Christmas, down from 6% previously. The odds of Bitcoin exceeding $90,000 stand at 14%, while the chance of it being above $80,000 stands at 44%, he says. Traders see Bitcoin as slightly more likely than not to finish the year below $80,000, with a one-in-five chance of a drop below $70,000 by Christmas. The next major test is the U.S. midterms. Derive options price a typical Bitcoin move of approximately 3.1% over the 24-hour period covering election night. They assign a 26% probability of Bitcoin recovering above $80,000 by Friday. Bitcoin was last at $78,102. ([email protected])0625 GMT - The risk-reward to being tactically long in European government bonds has increased even as risks toward higher energy prices remain, RBC Capital Markets analysts say in a note. "One could envisage a tactical bond market rally from here in both a scenario where energy surges higher (say on a geopolitical escalation) or starts falling again (in a de-escalation)," they say. RBC Capital Markets has been bond bears for quite some time now and doesn't think that the structural backdrop behind the current yield levels has changed. "Tactically, however, we think the market might well correct further, and it remains to be seen how resilient economic activity in the face of elevated rate-hike expectations and bond yields remain going forward." ([email protected])0622 GMT - The U.S. Treasury is expected to leave coupon auction sizes unchanged at its upcoming quarterly refunding announcement, says SanJac Alpha CIO Andrew Wells. "I think everyone is more interested in what Treasury does with buybacks," he says. In August, the Treasury announced an increase to long-dated bond buyback auctions through Nov. 4, so "we will be looking to see whether Treasury carries them into the next quarter," he says. "If it does, I'd accept that as a willingness to keep providing more liquidity support for older long-dated bonds." That gives investors a larger outlet for selling those securities while the Federal Reserve is trying to keep financial conditions tight. "I think the buyback pace and size deserve far more attention than the auction sizes," Wells says. ([email protected])0617 GMT - J.P. Morgan expects the U.S. Treasury to leave forward guidance, nominal coupon auction and buyback auction sizes unchanged in the November refunding announcement, its rates strategists say ahead of the announcement this week. However, they see the risk skewed toward cutting longer-term auction sizes, "though we see no valid reason to take this action." The strategists think the Treasury should remove "at least" from the long-standing forward guidance, though the Treasury's reticence to adjust its guidance last quarter, alongside the specific change made in August, suggests it's taking a more patient approach. ([email protected])0608 GMT - Traders should brace for a round of interest-rate hikes in December, Macquarie Group's Thierry Wizman says in a note. "But we think that the subjective probability of a hike is greatest at the Bank of Japan--roughly 80%--not the European Central Bank, given the prospect that France may wobble further," the global FX and rates strategist says. Also, AI-driven growth, based on capex executions, will be more robust and evident in Japan, still, across the fourth quarter, he says. The probability of a December hike is a bit lower at the ECB, given the prospective need to sustain France's public finance access to capital markets, says Wizman, seeing a 66% probability. For the Federal Reserve, he sees the probability of a hike around 50%. ([email protected])0518 GMT - China's factory activity is likely to face continued pressure from the property downturn and tight fiscal positions, says Barclays in a research note. The October purchasing managers' index weakened with manufacturing and construction returning to contractionary territory, Barclays says. "We believe the property downturn remained a key drag, while support from infrastructure was modest." Infrastructure investment has weakened visibly in 2026 amid local fiscal constraints, fewer eligible projects among other reasons, it adds.([email protected])0516 GMT - Australia's housing market distress is getting worse, with property sales at auction dropping to their lowest level since April 2020, according to property research group Cotality. Across all capital cities, 1,735 auctions were held last week, down 7.3% on the previous week and 17.7% lower than the same time last year. The combined capital cities preliminary clearance rate fell to 47.2%, from 48.4% the previous week. The soft data comes a day before the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates for a fifth time this year. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)0454 GMT - Taiwan's 4Q economic momentum is likely to remain strong, despite a much higher base, Citi economist Adrienne Lui says in a note. Economic growth was stronger-than-expected at 14.36% on year in 3Q, according to advance estimates. 4Q growth is expected to be supported by elevated order backlogs and Taiwan's dominance across the artificial intelligence hardware supply chains, Lui says. Economic indicators--such as PMI--continue to signal expansionary conditions, indicating that growth should remain robust into early 2027. Citi expects Taiwan's economy to expand 9.9% in 4Q. ([email protected])0426 GMT - South Korea's structurally widening current account surplus, underpinned by persistent chip-led export growth and a robust goods trade surplus, is likely to drive further won appreciation over the long term, Citigroup's Jin-Wook Kim says. The economist expects the current account surplus to average 22.8% of gross domestic product in 2026-2028, up sharply from 4.2% in 2016-2025. Citi forecasts the dollar to fall to 1,300 won over the next three months and 1,270 won over the next six to 12 months. The dollar has weakened 6.6% against the won this year to 1,345.30 won, according to FactSet. South Korea's financial authorities and the National Pension Service could step in to buy dollars if the won appreciate rapidly, Citi says. ([email protected])0424 GMT - The Singapore dollar weakens against its U.S. counterpart ahead of U.S. labor data due this week. Resilient employment would reinforce expectations for further tightening from the Federal Reserve, while high oil prices will add pressure on energy importers, MUFG Bank's Lloyd Chan says in a report. Higher Treasury yields and pricier oil would remain an unfavorable backdrop for Asian currencies, he adds. The U.S. dollar is 0.1% higher at S$1.2791.([email protected])0417 GMT - Malaysia's manufacturing PMI data signals improvement at the start of 4Q as new orders return to growth. AI-related demand helped underpin a fresh rise in output, S&P Global's October survey shows. PMI edged up to 51.0 from 49.9 as production grew for the first time in three months. That indicates continued growth in industrial production and GDP in 4Q, with an increase in pace from 3Q, S&P says. Firms increased staffing and purchasing activity as they sought to expand capacity, says Maryam Baluch at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Still, supply-chain pressures persisted and inflationary pressures rose, she notes. Cost concerns and uncertainty over the economic and geopolitical outlook weighed on sentiment, with external headwinds a key threat to economic resilience. ([email protected])0359 GMT - Thai PMI data indicated the strongest pace of expansion in the manufacturing sector so far this year, a positive sign for an economy that has struggled to solidify momentum. S&P Global's PMI rose to 54.8 in October--its highest since end-2025 and signalling a sharp strengthening of manufacturing conditions. The performance was driven by an improvement in demand as growing customer bases and promotions boosted new orders by one of the strongest paces on record. Average input prices rose only marginally. Robust orders, business confidence and increased backlogs hint at continued production growth near term, says Jingyi Pan at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Still, hiring and supply-chain constraints merit monitoring in the coming months. ([email protected])