Commodities and Crypto Driving Robinhood Prediction Market Growth — Market Talk
1114 ET - Retail investors are spurring an evolution in what's the most interest-grabbing of prediction market contract offerings. Speaking at the NEXTPredict Summit in New York, JB Mackenzie, general manager and vice president of futures and prediction markets at Robinhood, says that interest is moving away from things like 'mention markets' and sports and toward other economic questions. "The handling of the U.S. economy has been the top topic," says Mackenzie, noting big volumes in contracts ahead of last month's Fed decision. It's also potentially signaling that the U.S. economy is the biggest issue for voters in those year's midterm elections. ([email protected])1105 ET - While Canada has ambitious infrastructure goals, Mullen Group sees mining as the only sector delivering growth. Speaking to investors, Chair and Senior Executive Murray Mullen notes that capital will eventually flow toward Canada's major infrastructure builds, the timeline isn't certain. "This is Canada," Mullen says. "It sometimes takes a long time to get these projects off the drawing board and to shovels working." Until then, Mullen expects the company will be mindful of its capex until projects are confirmed. As a result, he says the logistics company plans to hold back on major capital expenditures until projects are officially approved, continuing to direct capital toward active growth areas like mining. ([email protected])1055 ET - Bitcoin's outlook depends on whether inflows into bitcoin exchange-traded funds hold up if equities continue to fall, Nexo Dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev says in a note. Worries about the cost of the AI buildout have triggered a global selloff in technology shares, sending bitcoin lower, he says. ETF buying has returned, albeit at a slower pace, he says. "U.S. spot funds attracted more than $1.08 billion across the first three sessions of the week, per SoSoValue, yet their average since July 1 is only about $86 million a day, well below the $200 million-plus daily average during each of the three strong rallies since 2024." Bitcoin falls 3.5% to $81,649, LSEG data show. ([email protected])1044 ET - Without fund traders throwing their full weight into participating in the prediction markets, young traders utilizing AI tools are making a lot of money in these markets. "The majority of really sharp money in the space right now is what we call 'garage band traders,'" says Seni Thomas, CEO of Edge Markets, during a panel discussion at the NEXTPredict Summit held in New York this week. While fund traders are expected to take the lead in the market segment, some analysts anticipate that trading may soon serve as an alternative to working a traditional job. ([email protected])1027 ET - Comcast's streaming service Peacock ended 3Q with 48 million paid subscribers. That's up 17% year-over-year, but flat with 2Q. Peacock, home to shows like "Love Island," hiked subscription prices in August. Other streaming players like Disney, Netflix and Paramount have similarly raised prices for their services this year. Peacock's revenue rose 34% year over year to $1.82 billion in the quarter. ([email protected])1018 ET - Institutional capital sees prediction markets as growing far beyond the sports and political volume it sees now. "We wouldn't be getting involved in this space unless we thought it was a multi-trillion dollar market," says Neal Berger of Eagle's View Capital Management. Speaking on a panel at the NextPredict Summit in New York, Berger cites a forecast that the prediction market could grow to be as large as a $10 trillion market, which sports only accounting for about 30% of that. ([email protected])1016 ET - Consumers continue to be resilient, Procter & Gamble CFO Andre Schulten says on CNBC. "We see our categories continue to grow in the range of 2% to 3%," he says, "but we see bifurcation in the consumer." Higher-income consumers continue to spend, buying bigger pack sizes and shopping a variety of retail channels. "They like to treat themselves in beauty, wellness and healthcare," Schulten says. "They are trading up, and a $30 bottle of shampoo is within reach." On the other hand, lower-income consumers are living paycheck to paycheck. These consumers still want to use premium brands like Tide detergent and Pampers diapers, meaning P&G needs to offer accessible price points and promotions, Schulten says. Procter & Gamble climbs 5.3%. ([email protected])1009 ET - Procter & Gamble is growing, CFO Andre Schulten says in an interview with CNBC, with all categories and regions notching higher sales in the latest quarter. The growth comes despite geopolitical and economic challenges. "We are seeing headwinds," Schulten says. "It's mostly driven by oil prices, as you can imagine." The consumer-goods company has raised its commodity outlook to $1.4 billion after tax, up from $1 billion at the beginning of the year, as input costs continue to climb. "That is certainly a headwind that we'll have to deal with," Schulten says. "We know how to do this. We've done it before, but it is something that is informing our guidance, which therefore is relatively wide at this point and time in the year." Shares are up 5.4%. ([email protected])1009 ET - The contradiction between high crude export levels out of the Persian Gulf and high prices "reflects the extent of market fear of renewed supply disruption," Samer Hasn of XS.com says in a note. Prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading as the Houthis launch attacks against Saudi energy facilities, while the U.S. is reported to be preparing more military options against Iran. "Oil prices are resuming their upward climb amid growing signs that raise the probability of renewed escalation in the Middle East, which could disrupt crude supplies from the region on a wide, multi-point scale and in a way that could be structural," Hasn says. WTI is up 2.9% at $99.94 a barrel, and Brent is 3.3% higher at $112.46 a barrel. ([email protected])0954 ET — Comcast shed about 144,000 domestic residential broadband customers in the third quarter, marking a steeper loss than the year-ago period and than what Wall Street had expected. Competition in the connectivity space has been growing, especially in broadband, as cable companies and mobile carriers fight to attract and maintain customers. Major home-internet providers, including Comcast, have been pushing price-lock guarantees as customers turn to telecom companies' fixed wireless offerings, which are often cheaper than cable-provided internet plans. Despite the steeper third-quarter subscriber loss, Comcast's year-to-date domestic residential broadband losses have improved overall from the same period last year. ([email protected])0939 ET - American Airlines CEO Robert Isom doesn't expect fuel prices to come down anytime soon. "If we had talked two months ago, three months ago--we were expecting profitability in the fourth quarter," he says on CNBC. Things have changed since then, though. Surging jet fuel prices dented the airline's 3Q results, and the company forecasts another quarterly loss in the current period. "If we look out into the new year: Yes, I think that fuel prices are going to be higher, longer," Isom says. "But we adjust to that, and so whether it's capacity and better matching supply and demand, or giving our customers something that they are willing and want to pay more for." American Airlines off 1% in early trading. ([email protected] ET - American Airlines is planning to "materially decelerate" its capacity growth next year, CEO Robert Isom says on CNBC. The carrier, which is set to increase capacity between 5.5% and 6.5% in the current quarter, for the past few years has been working to grow back its network, reestablishing itself in airports like Chicago, Philadelphia and Miami. "This is all about making sure that we have a network that is the leading network for North America," Isom says. Moving forward, though, the airline will ease its foot off the gas. "We're going to materially decelerate in terms of growth," Isom says. "We'll have more to say about that as we get into the first quarter." American Airlines down 3% in early trading. ([email protected])