No Guarantee Ethereum Follows Same Path as Bitcoin — Market Talk
0857 ET - Ethereum is unlikely to follow the same path as bitcoin when maturing as an asset class, according to Citi's Alex Saunders. Ethereum lacks some of the characteristics that helped bitcoin become more institutionalized, such as scarcity value. "It's not guaranteed that ethereum will always be the largest network or fulfill all the needs that come up as the technology evolves," he said. "I can see a world where different tokens fulfill different needs." Ether, the cryptocurrency, is 2.7% lower at $2,012.54. ([email protected])0810 ET - The Hungarian forint should remain stable in coming quarters given the government's credible path for front-loaded fiscal consolidation to meet the criteria for joining the eurozone, ING analysts say in a note. "The forint has proved more resilient to recent global selloffs than in previous episodes, with the euro versus the forint hovering within the range seen in previous months." This should remain the case, they say. Hungary's budget plan was broadly in line with expectations, meaning it didn't trigger any unwanted market volatility, they say. The euro trades flat at 364.58 forints.([email protected])0809 ET - The dollar is likely to stay elevated due to increased expectations of the U.S. Federal Reserve increasing interest rates further at upcoming meetings, Convera's market insights team say in a note. The most recent U.S. jobs data and inflation data came in stronger than expected, leading markets to raise their expectations of more Fed rate rises. Investors fully price in at least a 25 basis points Fed rate increase on December 10, and place a 9% chance of a more aggressive 50bps rate hike, LSEG data show. The DXY dollar index trades flat at 102.926, having hit a 19-month high of 103.083 overnight. ([email protected])0757 ET - The prospect of further interventions to strengthen the Japanese yen should limit the currency's losses against the dollar, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. "This time, however, the move is less about yen weakness than dollar strength, against which Japan's Ministry of Finance has even less room to act." In any case, markets are likely to test higher dollar-yen levels more cautiously from here, he says. The dollar falls 0.1% to 159.65 yen after reaching a 10-week high of 159.94 earlier, according to LSEG, a touch below the key 160 level. Increased market expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate rises have boosted the dollar. ([email protected])0728 ET - Markets have raised their expectations of the Bank of England increasing interest rates at the December policy meeting after stronger-than-expected U.K. GDP data. The latest data shows U.K. annual GDP expanded at 2.1% in September, above the 1.9% expected growth by economists in a WSJ poll. Investments in the AI industry and AI-driven productivity have likely contributed to the better-than-expected growth so far in 2026, Nomura research analysts say in a note. Markets price in a 76% chance of a BOE rate rise in December following the data release, up from 71% chance beforehand, LSEG data show. ([email protected])0652 ET - It is hard to ignore the negative total returns in bond markets this year but "I would argue that the worst of the selloff that we've seen in fixed income in 2026 is already behind us," says Federated Hermes's R.J. Gallo in a note. Many factors have contributed to the rising yield environment: the war in the Middle East, AI capital expenditure, the resilient U.S. economy and the structural U.S. fiscal deficit that neither party seems particularly eager to address, the chief investment officer for global fixed income says. The 10-year Treasury yield is higher than the market's expected rate of nominal GDP growth over the next few years, while for most of the last 20 to 25 years, "you couldn't say that." ([email protected])0641 ET - The euro could stay weak due to the political turmoil in France and the geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia, Convera's market insights team say in a note. These challenges could limit the scope for a sustained rally, the team says. "With euro shorts already heavily stretched, near-term rallies may remain corrective rather than signal a durable change in trend." The euro trades flat versus dollar at $1.1089 and rises 0.1% versus sterling to 0.8359 pounds. Euro hit an 18-month low of $1.1065 overnight, LSEG data show. ([email protected])0622 ET - The dollar eased slightly on lower oil prices, while short-dated Treasury yields rose on the back of increased expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening. The next potential drivers include initial jobless data at 1330 GMT and producer prices on Thursday. "A hotter [PPI] reading could lift short-dated yields and extend dollar gains, while softer data or Fed pushback against a half-point move could trim interest rate expectations," Kudo.com's Konstantinos Chrysikos says in a note. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 102.849 after reaching a 19-month high of 103.083 overnight. The two-year Treasury yield rises 3.2 basis points to 4.758%, according to Tradeweb. ([email protected])0535 ET - More good news for the U.K. economy could spell trouble for the Bank of England, George Brown at Schroders says in a note. The economy grew 0.7% in the third quarter, the sharpest quarterly expansion since the first quarter of 2024. "Growth has remained resilient despite higher energy prices, with business investment doing the heavy lifting amid the AI buildout," Brown says. But this could prove a headache for the country's central bank, he adds. "If the economy keeps growing robustly as the labor market improves, the energy shock could morph into a more persistent inflation problem." Schroders expects interest rates to peak at 4.5%, from 4.0% now. "But continued strong growth could force the Bank to go further," Brown says. ([email protected])0530 ET - U.K. growth is set to slow, James Smith at ING says in a note. "The U.K. economy has had a remarkable run through 2026... But with inflation on the rise, growth is likely to slow through the winter," he says. Third-quarter growth of 0.7% was driven by IT and professional services, of which many industries started to weaken in September, Smith notes. Strong consumer spending also boosted growth, but this is likely to come under greater pressure next year. While the Bank of England might see a strong 3Q as a reason to hike rates, monetary policy is already having a restrictive effect, Smith adds. ING expects another rate hike in February but sees a return to rate cuts before the end of 2027.([email protected])0511 ET - The cost of protecting euro credit against default rises as risk appetite dwindles following reports that Nvidia plans to oust its Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang after allegations of extramarital affairs. Huang has been pivotal in the tech industry, leading one of the largest AI companies. "The wider concern is that Nvidia's leadership uncertainty could undermine confidence in the AI trade just as investors were beginning to regain some optimism about its fundamentals," Capital.com's Daniela Hathorn says in a note. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps rises 2 basis points to 292bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. ([email protected])0504 ET - The cost of protecting Nvidia's debt against default is unchanged even as the company plans to fire its current Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang after allegations of two extramarital affairs. Huang, who is listed as a co-founder of Nvidia, could stay on as president of the company in a much reduced role, but with some level of influence, Quilter Cheviot's Ben Barringer says in a note. "Whatever happens from here is unlikely to damage Nvidia in the short-term. The order book remains strong and performance is being delivered," he says. Nvidia's five-year credit default swap costs are unchanged at 141 basis points, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. ([email protected])