Superior Plus Downside Risks Largely Played Out After Stock's Decline — Market Talk
1417 ET - Superior Plus' downside risks have largely played out following a 20% drop in share price, TD Cowen's Aaron MacNeil says, who upgrades the stock to hold from sell. The analyst notes shares have declined since the U.S. midterms, but now says that "while the lower earnings outlook reinforces our execution concerns, 3Q/26 was in line with our expectations and Certarus was stronger." Still, with the reduced guidance, his 2026 and 2027 adjusted Ebitda estimates are reduced 2% and 5%, respectively, largely due to a decrease in expected propane segment margins given excess planned capacity. Shares are down 1.8% to C$5.59, and are off 21% year-to-date. ([email protected])1348 ET - Both Home Depot and Lowe's are scheduled to report quarterly earnings next week, with sector sales data suggesting that demand stayed generally stable in the third quarter, Baird analysts say in a research note. Baird's channel checks suggest that Home Depot could post slightly better-than-expected comparable sales. The analysts say they remain comfortable with Wall Street's fourth-quarter projection, citing broadening demand through the first half of the year. Meanwhile, recent checks and analysis of third-party data leaves the analysts reasonably comfortable that Lowe's can hit its flattish comp outlook. ([email protected])1303 ET - Household indebtedness in China is declining in absolute terms, with debt falling to CNY82 trillion ($12.29 trillion) in 3Q, from a peak CNY84 trillion in 2Q 2025, Fitch Ratings says. The decline in household borrowing is acting as an impediment to domestic demand in the country, Fitch adds. At the same time, income growth per capita is outpacing consumer spending, which points to higher savings, Fitch says. The agency also says strong export performance and fiscal support in 4Q26 should keep GDP growth close to its 4.5% forecast. ([email protected])1217 ET - The total stablecoin supply has fallen at its sharpest rate in more than four years, according to Glassnode analysts. Supply declined by $14.2 billion in the past 30 days, its fastest contraction since June 2022, the analysts say. Holders are redeeming stablecoins for dollars and taking that cash out of the market, they say. Traders will be looking for the 30-day change flipping back to growth as a sign that new money is coming in, the analysts say. Bitcoin is down more than 16% from its September high, but up 1.9% on the day at $74,230. ([email protected])1152 ET - CoreWeave may not look to raise capital through equity issuance in the near-term, despite establishing an at-the-market program in September, Mizuho analysts write in a note. The company needs capital to support its AI data-center buildout and is looking to sources beyond the unsecured debt market, where its bond yields have shot up. Still, market concerns over AI financing and the data-center buildout suggest that CoreWeave may not be in any rush to issue more stock. "We had flagged earlier this year that we would not be surprised to see CRWV tap equity markets given the scale of its financing requirements, although with shares currently at depressed levels on account of the aforementioned market concerns, this may not happen near-term," they write. CoreWeave is up 26% following its earnings, though still down around 25% over the past month. ([email protected])1048 ET - Yields on two-year U.K. government bonds, or gilts, climb to a two-week high as oil prices advance. Markets have raised their expectations of the Bank of England raising interest rates in December as high energy prices increase inflation risk. Brent crude rises 3.2% to $94.4 a barrel. Two-year gilt yields hit 4.925%, the highest level since Oct. 29, LSEG data show. ([email protected])1034 ET - Euro-denominated debt supply is projected to rise over the coming year, Deutsche Bank credit strategists say in a note. Debt supply by AI-related companies is expected to continue, as is supply by nontech companies, the strategists say. Deutsche Bank forecasts new euro investment-grade issuance--bonds issued by companies deemed low-risk and financially stable by rating agencies--could reach 755 billion euros in 2027. ([email protected])0957 ET - Long-dated bond yields could remain high over the coming year due to rising debt issuance and higher term premia, or the extra return investors demand for holding long-term bonds, ABN Amro economists say in a note. However, short-term bond yields could fall as markets are expected to lower their rate hike expectations, the economists say. ([email protected])0944 ET - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called the latest CPI report distressing and "borderline disturbing" in an interview with PBS NewsHour. Goolsbee reiterated his previous concerns: services inflation remains too high, which is probably not mostly driven by oil prices, or transitory factors. "Whenever you start hearing the word transitory, the hair on your neck should be standing up a little bit," Goolsbee said. When asked whether the Fed should raise rates at its next meeting, Goolsbee said everything is always on the table, and inflation is moving in the wrong direction. ([email protected])0837 ET - U.S. corporate bond issuers have raised their euro bond offerings so far in 2026, driving up euro credit net supply, Deutsche Bank credit strategists say in a note. U.S. issuers account for 47% of net supply in the euro market, the strategists say. In contrast, net supply by European companies, excluding U.K.-based firms, has decreased slightly, the strategists say. U.S. AI companies have significantly contributed to the growth, but non-AI U.S.-based companies have also driven up euro credit net supply, they say. ([email protected])0720 ET - The dollar is likely to remain firm in the near term on the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates further, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. "Given what could be an accelerating U.S. labor market, core inflation well above target and a Fed ready to pull the trigger again, we expect the dollar to stay strong and explore the top end of trading ranges over the coming weeks." Friday's October U.S. PPI data could show further evidence of elevated price pressures, keeping the dollar supported, he says. The DXY dollar index could rise above resistance levels at 102.850-103.000 soon, he says. The DXY rises 0.3% to a four-week high of 102.550. ([email protected])0718 ET - The cost of protecting euro credit against default falls as sentiment improves after tech company Coreweave posted better-than-expected earnings. The positive earnings eased AI-related concerns, supporting risk appetite. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps falls 5 basis points to 293bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. ([email protected])