Will the US Announce the End of the Iran Blockade Before Midterms? Here's What Polymarket Is Saying
The U.S. military has been maintaining a blockade of Iranian ports to prevent the country from shipping oil amid the war.Iran Slips Through BlockadeAccording to a Reuters report, Iran has managed to export some liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and jet fuel since in July, even as the U.S. campaign has sharply curtailed the country’s crude exports.According to the report, at least some Iranian cargoes have been concealed through ship-to-ship transfers involving other Gulf producers off Oman.The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said oil flows through the strait averaged 20.9 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025, equal to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.More recent EIA data show just how dramatically the disruption has affected flows. Oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 14.9 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026 and only 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter, compared with more than 21 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025.Here’s What Prediction Market Is SayingDespite some ships slipping through the blockade, the U.S. military has been able to restrict the majority of shipping activity.Amid this, is betting on whether the U.S. will end the Iranian blockade before the midterms as oil prices surge.Polymarket, a Polygon based prediction platform that allows users to wager on an outcome using the USDC stablecoin is currently betting on a contract "US announces end of Iranian blockade by…?"Over $43 million has been bet on the contract so far.Bettors have placed a low probability of the U.S. ending the blockade by Nov. 15, with the odds at 12%. The odds of the blockade ending by Nov. 30 are 23%.The odds surge to 35% for Dec. 31 and are highest at 60% for Mar. 31.US-Iran Tensions Remain ElevatedU.S. diplomatic missions across the Middle East after intelligence warned that Iranian plots targeting Americans had reached “advanced stages.”The alert comes as the Pentagon is weighing , with U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reportedly having follow-on strike options ready if the White House authorizes them.This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.Preview Photo courtesy: Shutterstock